The faulty case for Western separatism

With the political pundits in a tizzy over the coalition talks in Ottawa, something fierce has been brewing in the Conservative stronghold of Alberta... Western separatism is reborn in the prairies.

For a brief history lesson, Western separatism was born in the late 80's in Alberta. It arose as a result of the perceived lack of input the Western provinces have in Ottawa. However, rather than turning into a strong movement (ala the Quebec separatists), a politician by the name of Preston Manning preached the ideals of reforming Ottawa from the inside out, rather than going the harsh road of separation.

Now, with the reformers finally gaining power in 2006 they have had what they deemed to be the ultimate prize, the influence of Western Canada in Ottawa. And now, with a coalition government seemingly inevitable (barring the proroguing of parliament) the reformers can see the cracks broadening in their government's foundation. How could this happen? They were elected to a strong minority. The people have spoken! Who are the opposition to deny the will of the people?!?

The problem? They were elected to a minority! Meaning of course that there are more opposition members in the House of Commons than governing members. While they hold a simple majority in a party-by-party basis, the combined will of the opposition could suffice to form a coalition if the governing party ever lost the confidence of the House.

It appears this has happened (barring the aforementioned proroguing), and the Liberals, NDP, and Bloc will go to the Governor General to ask her to grant them the power to form a new government.

Now, this has made an awful lot of people very angry. Browsing the Blogging Tories website (What can I say, I'm a masochist) reveals the right-wing bloggers think this is the end of democracy in Canada as we know it.

However, it has also re-ignited talks of separation, particularly from disgruntled CPC supporters in Alberta. There are people pulling money out of Eastern banks and putting it into Albertan banks. There are Albertans claiming they will refuse to pay their federal income tax in protest. And there are people calling for the outright secession of Alberta from the nation of Canada.

Now, there have been whole political careers made and lost over the Quebec separation. It is a complex and multifaceted act that I do not claim to fully understand. However, I have read the Clarity Act, and I know that its key points are:

• The House of Commons has the power to decide whether a proposed referendum question was clear before the public vote;
• The House of Commons has the power to determine whether or not a clear majority has expressed itself in any referendum
• All provinces and First Nations must be part of the negotiations;
• The House of Commons has the power to override a referendum decision if it felt the referendum violated any of the tenets of the Clarity Act;

But most importantly:

• The secession of a province of Canada would require an amendment to the Constitution of Canada.

Now, the Constitution Act of 1982 states:

Amendments can only be passed by the Canadian House of Commons, the Senate, and a two-thirds majority of the provincial legislatures representing at least 50% of the national population.

This stacks the deck against any province wishing to secede from Canada, and bars the unilateral secession of any province.

Assuming Alberta has a successful referendum, and it is deemed valid by the government in Ottawa, the secession is still not complete. They must still amend the constitution of Canada.

Alberta, with only 10% of the nation's population would need the support of every Western province's provincial legislature (30% total population). If this happens, there is not enough population left outside Quebec or Ontario to satisfy the requirement that at least 7 provincial legislatures representing at least 50% of the national population support the amendment.

This means they would then need the support of Quebec or Ontario, along with the remaining provinces in the event they don't obtain both Quebec and Ontario. After this, they would still need to obtain the support of both the House of Commons and the Senate, something that will not be obtained unless there is a Conservative majority in office. This begs the ultimate question, why would Alberta want to secede from Canada if there is a Conservative majority in Ottawa?

All this points to how untenable the secession of ANY province of Canada would be under the Clarity Act.

It also points to the "scolded child" nature of Albertan Conservatives. The House of Commons, in a democratic and constitutionally valid fashion, has repudiated their governing style. In response, they want to take their toys and go home. This inability to recognize the errors in judgment and governance by Stephen Harper's CPC would be disturbing if it weren't so comical to watch.

So I will conclude by stating let the CPC's supporters spout off about Western alienation reviving the separatist movement. It has the same weight as a teenager boldly claiming they will never speak to their parents ever again... And this time they mean it!